A latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) claimed that China would continue to withhold its globally dominant position in solar module manufacturing capacities even in 2030. The report estimated the likely production capacities of solar modules in different countries by 2030 if the announced projects are implemented.
The report titled ‘The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing’ also said India might replace Vietnam’s solar module capacity by 2030 with the current growth and announced manufacturing capacities. In addition, it claimed that globally clean energy technology manufacturing saw a surge due to supportive policies, ambitious corporate strategies, and consumer demands.
The IEA report said that in 2022, three countries accounted for nearly 90% of the installed capacity for manufacturing solar PV modules—China, Vietnam, and India. China alone accounted for 80% of the share. While Vietnam accounted for five percent of the total capacity, India had a three percent share. However, the report said India could beat Vietnam by 2030 in solar module manufacturing.
“If all announced projects come to fruition, concentration among the top three producers would remain very similar to the current level (90%). The share of today’s second-largest country by installed capacity, Viet Nam, would give way to India, today’s third largest, as well as to the United States, which would move to third, just ahead of Viet Nam. China’s share would remain virtually unchanged at around 80%,” the report said.
The report said that the already-announced projects would lead to a sixfold increase in the manufacturing capacity of solar modules in the US. At the same time, it would increase the manufacturing capacities in India by up to three times.
“For cells, there would be a tenfold increase in India and a doubling in Viet Nam and Thailand. For wafers, India would become the second largest global manufacturer, and the United States would rank third globally, starting from virtually zero production in 2022,” the report said.
The report claimed that in monetary terms, the projected output of the announced manufacturing capacity for five key clean technologies (USD 790 billion annually) now exceeds that of the market size for their demand of USD 640 billion in 2030. As a result, China is likely to remain the most dominant player globally in the market.
“China appears well positioned to capture USD 500 billion, or around 65% of the projected output from global clean technology manufacturing capacity in 2030, including both existing and announced projects. Unless China’s domestic deployment of key clean technologies exceeds the levels projected in the APS, more than two-thirds of this output would be surplus to domestic requirements and need to find export markets,” the report said.